In the event of a natural disaster or terrorist attack, evacuation of people from the affected area may be necessary. When authorities have some warning of an impending disaster, such as weather forecasts or terrorist threats, the evacuation may begin before the event occurs. According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), evacuations are more common than many people realize.
Hundreds of times each year, transportation and industrial accidents release harmful substances, forcing thousands of people to leave their homes. Fires and floods cause evacuations even more frequently. Almost every year, people along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts evacuate in the face of approaching hurricanes.
Source: http://www.fema.gov/plan/prepare/evacuation.shtm
Large-scale evacuations involve the movement of people and resources both into and out of a geographic area. Community leaders can improve the security of their communities by planning for potential emergency evacuations before they are necessary. One method for planning evacuations is to use computer simulation to evaluate which evacuation methods are best, determine whether existing roadways and other transportation resources are sufficient, and estimate how long the evacuation of an area would take. Recent advances in simulation modeling and visualization techniques have enabled better dynamic modeling of evacuation scenarios.
Dr. Manuel Rossetti at the University of Arkansas is investigating the use of computer simulation to plan emergency evacuations. The goal of the research is to demonstrate the use of current evacuation simulation technology through a case study analysis. The scenario investigated is the emergency evacuation of people (customers and workers) from a shopping area to safe areas in the surrounding region. For this case study, the region around Northwest Arkansas Mall and Spring Creek Center is investigated. The research examines the process of how people evacuate to arrive at safe areas as long as the emergency takes place, how the evacuation affects traffic flows, and which parking spaces have the longest evacuation times. During this case study, an analysis of the state-of-the-art for this type of modeling will be performed and directions for future research for large-scale evacuation will be identified.
This video is produced by the simulation and provides a visual representation of a preliminary evacuation scenario involving the shopping district near the Northwest Arkansas mall. During the simulation, vehicle traffic is generated along the major roadways (e.g. U.S. 71 and Joyce Boulevard). In addition, the parking lots within the area begin to generate cars to simulate evacuation dynamics. Within the model, yellow and red circles on the roadway indicate hot spots of congestion. While preliminary in nature, this initial simulation will be used to validate future evacuation scenarios in order to determine how long people take to evacuate from the area. In addition, we will be able to identify which parking lots have the most difficulty during an evacuation.
